The Phillies First 25 Games

As I said before, the 2016 Phillies are off to a good start. If one looks at the current standings, they have a 15-10 record with a run differential of -16 (they have scored 82 runs and allowed 98 runs for a runs differential of 82 – 98 = -16). This raises the question:

How unusual is it for a team in the first 25 games to have a run differential of -16 and win 15 games?

Using the Retrosheet game logs, I collected the number of wins and the runs differential for all MLB teams in the past 50 seasons (1966 through 2015) for a total of 1348 team/seasons.

I construct a scatterplot of runs differential and number of wins (in the first 25 games) below and show the 2016 Phillies value (-16, 15) as a red dot.

Yes, it is clear that this is an unusual occurrence in the history of baseball.

run_differential

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